The first three weeks of the season have produced some outstanding rugby with high scoring matches up and down the land, here is my preview of the live matches on Friday and Saturday.
London Welsh v Gloucester (BT Sport Friday 7.45pm)
London Welsh enter round four still searching for their first victory of the season. But I expect that wait to go on against a Gloucester side who will be looking for a big backlash after a home loss to Exeter last week.
The Cherry and Whites have disappointed so far this season registering just one victory against Sale in week two. Big name signings Richard Hibbard and John Afoa haven't had the impact many had hoped but they have played three very tough packs so far and this week they are in for a much easier ride. With the pack able to provide some front foot ball another summer signing James Hook could star this evening, and he is a great price to score the first try of the game.
Every fixture involving Welsh has produced 50 points or more and there is no reason to think anything will change this evening. The Exiles defence has been porous to say the least but they showed some good ambition at Bath in week two and can score if given open space. Backing over 6.5 tries in the match makes sense and I'd also recommend backing over 52.5 points in the match.
Best Bets
James Hook to score first 20/1 (SkyBet) 1pt win
Over 52.5 points 5/6 (Boylesports) 2pt win
Over 6.5 tries 11/10 (Bet365) 2pt win
Northampton v Bath (BT Sport Saturday 3.15pm)
Northampton welcome unbeaten Bath to Franklins Gardens on Saturday after two consecutive away games. Bath demolished 14 man Leicester Tigers 45-0 last week and now sit top of the table. The visitors have made a fast start to all their games so far this season and I would not be surprised to see them score a try to open the game.
This game is really too close to call in my eyes, Northampton are the reigning champion and are a formidable force at home. But Bath have made an excellent start to the season and I could see them leaving the Midlands with two points, the draw looks an great value bet. Also backing Bath/Draw on the half-time/full-time market at a whopping 66/1 is also great value in a game between two quality sides.
Best Bets
Draw 25/1 (Bet365) 1pt win
Bath try first scoring play 7/1 (BetVictor) 1pt win
Bath/Draw HT-FT 66/1 (Betfred) 0.5pt win
Friday, 26 September 2014
Friday, 12 September 2014
Aviva Premiership Round Two Preview
After a rip-roaring start the Aviva Premiership enters its second round of action with plenty of exciting match-ups here are my best bets for the weekends games on BT Sport.
Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers (BT Sport Saturday 3.15pm)
Exeter and Leicester both made promising starts to their campaigns with victories over London Welsh and Newcastle respectively. The Chiefs decimated newly promoted Welsh 52-0, while a Vereniki Goneva hat-trick helped the Tigers to a 36-17 win.
Leicester have had the upper hand over the Chiefs in recent times with four consecutive victories by an average of 9.25 points. Which makes the Tigers handicap mark of -3 very attractive. Richard Cockerill has brought England trio Antony Allen, Matthew Tait and Geoff Parling back into the side and the power throughout the side may just be too much for the Chiefs to handle. While they were impressive against London Welsh it would be unwise to read too much into that result as the new boys looked well below average.
Manu Tuilagi opened the scoring in the corresponding fixture last season after just three minutes, and the powerful English centre can make his presence felt again this weekend against the talented but inexperienced duo of Sam Hill and Henry Slade. In a game that I expect to be open it is worth taking a punt on Logovii Munipola to score at anytime, like Tuilagi he scored in this fixture last season and is a nice price to do so again.
Best Bets
Leicester -3 10/11 (Bet365) 3pt win
Manu Tuilagi to score first 14/1 (Paddy Power) 1pt win
Logovii Mulipola to score a try 8/1 (Sky Bet) 1pt win
London Wasps v Northampton Saints (BT Sport Sunday 2.00pm)
Wasps were only denied an opening day victory over by a controversial late try by David Strettle. The replays seemed to suggest that Strettle knocked the ball on whilst scoring, but the TMO awarded the try and Dai Young's side were left frustrated by a 34-28 loss. This weekend they welcome the league champions who were uber impressive in their victory over Gloucester, they showed no signs of early season rust and had the game sewn up just after the interval and ran out 53-6 winners.
The hosts haven't registered a victory over the Saints since October 2009 losing by an average of 19 points. But the past two games at Adams Park have both been settled by just two points and with this Wasps side rapidly improving this could become a tighter game than many believe. I still expect Northampton to have just too much for the home side but the half-time/full-time market is good value.
Luther Burrell scored twice on the opening night of the season and looks good value to cross the line again. With Wasps likely to focus a lot of their energy on stopping the gigantic George North, there should be more space in midfield for Burrell to expose. Another player who I fancy to score is Wasps back-row Ashley Johnson, the South African blindside is a player of explosive power and close to the line he is difficult to stop.
Best Bets
Northampton HT-FT evens (Coral) 2pt win
Luther Burrell to score first 18/1 (Paddy Power) 1pt win
Ashley Johnson to score a try 9/2 (Betfred) 1pt win
Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers (BT Sport Saturday 3.15pm)
Exeter and Leicester both made promising starts to their campaigns with victories over London Welsh and Newcastle respectively. The Chiefs decimated newly promoted Welsh 52-0, while a Vereniki Goneva hat-trick helped the Tigers to a 36-17 win.
Leicester have had the upper hand over the Chiefs in recent times with four consecutive victories by an average of 9.25 points. Which makes the Tigers handicap mark of -3 very attractive. Richard Cockerill has brought England trio Antony Allen, Matthew Tait and Geoff Parling back into the side and the power throughout the side may just be too much for the Chiefs to handle. While they were impressive against London Welsh it would be unwise to read too much into that result as the new boys looked well below average.
Manu Tuilagi opened the scoring in the corresponding fixture last season after just three minutes, and the powerful English centre can make his presence felt again this weekend against the talented but inexperienced duo of Sam Hill and Henry Slade. In a game that I expect to be open it is worth taking a punt on Logovii Munipola to score at anytime, like Tuilagi he scored in this fixture last season and is a nice price to do so again.
Best Bets
Leicester -3 10/11 (Bet365) 3pt win
Manu Tuilagi to score first 14/1 (Paddy Power) 1pt win
Logovii Mulipola to score a try 8/1 (Sky Bet) 1pt win
London Wasps v Northampton Saints (BT Sport Sunday 2.00pm)
Wasps were only denied an opening day victory over by a controversial late try by David Strettle. The replays seemed to suggest that Strettle knocked the ball on whilst scoring, but the TMO awarded the try and Dai Young's side were left frustrated by a 34-28 loss. This weekend they welcome the league champions who were uber impressive in their victory over Gloucester, they showed no signs of early season rust and had the game sewn up just after the interval and ran out 53-6 winners.
The hosts haven't registered a victory over the Saints since October 2009 losing by an average of 19 points. But the past two games at Adams Park have both been settled by just two points and with this Wasps side rapidly improving this could become a tighter game than many believe. I still expect Northampton to have just too much for the home side but the half-time/full-time market is good value.
Luther Burrell scored twice on the opening night of the season and looks good value to cross the line again. With Wasps likely to focus a lot of their energy on stopping the gigantic George North, there should be more space in midfield for Burrell to expose. Another player who I fancy to score is Wasps back-row Ashley Johnson, the South African blindside is a player of explosive power and close to the line he is difficult to stop.
Best Bets
Northampton HT-FT evens (Coral) 2pt win
Luther Burrell to score first 18/1 (Paddy Power) 1pt win
Ashley Johnson to score a try 9/2 (Betfred) 1pt win
Thursday, 4 September 2014
Back Bath for Premiership Glory
This weekend sees the return of domestic Rugby Union as the Aviva Premiership hits our screens, and this season has the potential to be the best in the history of the competition. With nine months of pulsating action, hard hits, scorching tries and gut wrenching tension in store as the major powers try to wrestle the title away from Northampton. Here is my betting guide to the 2014/15 season.
It is likely to be a similar scenario at the top of the table this season to the one we have seen for the last five years. Saracens, Northampton and Leicester will all be strong candidates to take home silverware. They are the powerhouses of English rugby and have the proven pedigree to last the long trip of an Aviva Premiership season.
But for my money Bath look a great value bet to claim their first premiership title since 1996. Last year they missed out on the play-offs in agonising fashion on the final day of the season. Owner Bruce Craig has once again splashed the cash in an effort to bring the glory days back to the Rec. England prop Henry Thomas has arrived from Sale and full-back Luke Arscott has arrived from the Exeter Chiefs.
But the biggest signing of them all is Rugby League superstar Sam Burgess who will arrive from the NRL in October. Burgess has been smashing down defences in Australia for the past five seasons but has switched to Bath in a bid to help England win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. His sheer size and power aligned with his deft hands and sharp rugby brain will make him a star in union both domestically and internationally.
He will be joining a team full of other exciting English talent including George Ford, Anthony Watson, Kyle Eastmond and Jonathan Joseph who have all the attributes required to take on the likes of Saracens, Leicester and Northampton. With the disappointment of last season still fresh in the mind and the recruitments made in the off-season I can see Bath being a force to be reckoned with this season. At a juicy 10/1 they are a great value bet to go all the way, for the more cautious of you I'd still advise a top four finish at 11/8.
The top tryscorer market is littered with a number of players who could light up grounds up and down the country. Leicester Tigers back Niki Goneva claimed the award last season with 12 tries and he is currently 7/1 favourite to regain his crown. But with all the talent in the league it is better to look for some larger prices.
Fijian flyer Asaeli Tikoirotuma was snapped up by Harlequins after spells with the Chiefs and Manawatu in New Zealand. His raw pace and finishing ability will be a real asset to Quins and with Marland Yarde almost certain to be away with England for long periods of the season, Tikoirotuma will feature heavily and could be one of the stars of the season.
Mark Cueto is one of the greatest players in the history of the Aviva Premiership,his tally of 86 career tries make him the top scorer in the history of the competition. Last season the veteran winger finished the season with eight tries to his name leaving him joint fourth on the list. Despite his age Cueto remains one of the best finishers in the land, and will be a key player for his beloved Sale Sharks and at a big price he could be worth taking an each-way punt on.
Jonny May is another finisher with a proven record at this level, while it may not have always worked for him with England his predatory instincts at Gloucester have never been in question. Last season he registered nine tries in a team that performed well below its best, but with powerful signings in the pack I expect the Cherry and Whites to have a much better platform to release May and it would be no surprise to see him to top the charts come the end of the season.
It is likely to be a similar scenario at the top of the table this season to the one we have seen for the last five years. Saracens, Northampton and Leicester will all be strong candidates to take home silverware. They are the powerhouses of English rugby and have the proven pedigree to last the long trip of an Aviva Premiership season.
But for my money Bath look a great value bet to claim their first premiership title since 1996. Last year they missed out on the play-offs in agonising fashion on the final day of the season. Owner Bruce Craig has once again splashed the cash in an effort to bring the glory days back to the Rec. England prop Henry Thomas has arrived from Sale and full-back Luke Arscott has arrived from the Exeter Chiefs.
But the biggest signing of them all is Rugby League superstar Sam Burgess who will arrive from the NRL in October. Burgess has been smashing down defences in Australia for the past five seasons but has switched to Bath in a bid to help England win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. His sheer size and power aligned with his deft hands and sharp rugby brain will make him a star in union both domestically and internationally.
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| Burgess can lead Bath to glory (source www.skysports.com) |
The top tryscorer market is littered with a number of players who could light up grounds up and down the country. Leicester Tigers back Niki Goneva claimed the award last season with 12 tries and he is currently 7/1 favourite to regain his crown. But with all the talent in the league it is better to look for some larger prices.
Fijian flyer Asaeli Tikoirotuma was snapped up by Harlequins after spells with the Chiefs and Manawatu in New Zealand. His raw pace and finishing ability will be a real asset to Quins and with Marland Yarde almost certain to be away with England for long periods of the season, Tikoirotuma will feature heavily and could be one of the stars of the season.
Jonny May is another finisher with a proven record at this level, while it may not have always worked for him with England his predatory instincts at Gloucester have never been in question. Last season he registered nine tries in a team that performed well below its best, but with powerful signings in the pack I expect the Cherry and Whites to have a much better platform to release May and it would be no surprise to see him to top the charts come the end of the season.
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